In the polling indicator, the VVD has gradually decreased in recent months. Prime Minister Rutte’s party now has 22 to 26 seats, around seven seats fewer than half a year ago when the VVD stood at 29 to 33. In last year’s elections, the VVD was by far the strongest party with 34 seats.

In the Polling Indicator, a weighted average of the seat polls by I&O Research, Ipsos/EenVandaag and Kantar, the party is still the largest, but the gap to number 2, the PVV, has narrowed significantly. This party now has 18 to 22 seats. Six months ago it was 13 to 17. Geert Wilders’ party has 17 seats in the House of Representatives.

Lack of trust in the cabinet

Political scientist Tom Louwerse, creator of the Polling Indicator, points out that between 2012 and 2017, when the PvdA was governed, VVD was also as low as it is now. Nevertheless, he thinks that the VVD is “structurally more difficult” than it was then. “Rutte has ruled for twelve years. The party shares responsibility for politics. And thus also for many things that have not gone well in recent years, such as the problems with gas production in Groningen and the certificate affair. It’s getting harder to explain why the VVD must continue to govern.”

The VVD is concerned about the general mistrust of the cabinet, which, according to research by Ipsos, had already fallen to a low point before the budget day and then continued to fall. More than three quarters of respondents say they have little or very little trust in the cabinet.

Outliers at the VVD are often dissatisfied with the asylum policy, which they consider too flexible and do not find the course right enough overall. According to I&O Research, the VVD mainly loses against JA21 and Caroline van der Plas’ BBB. Today, voters switch between the VVD and the PVV much less frequently. The PVV wins mostly from the Forum for Democracy and does well among the people who didn’t vote last year.

In the polling indicator, the BBB appears to have peaked. This party had 14 to 19 seats in the summer. Now it’s 12 to 16, still a lot more than the one seat Van der Plas has in the House of Representatives. Louwerse thinks the slight drop is obvious, because the farmers’ protest has died down somewhat and the Remkes report seems to have taken the sting out of the nitrogen dispute.

Louwerse also finds the steady advance of the Party for the Animals remarkable. In last year’s elections, the PvdD achieved the best result in its history with 6 seats, and the party now has 8 to 11 seats in the Polling Indicator. According to Louwerse, the PvdD benefits from the lack of clear leadership on the left. The party primarily takes away votes from D66, Volt, the PvdA and GroenLinks.

Negative trend D66

The last two parties win in the polling guide and are almost equal in size: the PvdA has 10-13 seats, GroenLink’s 9-13. In the House of Representatives, the PvdA now has 9 and GroenLink’s 8.

Their gain comes at the expense of D66, which although it has 24 seats in the House of Representatives, fell in the Polling Indicator shortly after the election and failed to reverse the negative trend over the past six months. D66 has 12 to 16 seats, compared to 17 to 21 six months ago.

Even the CDA is not yet able to get out of the deep valley in which the party has been stuck for months. With 6 to 10 seats, the CDA is in just as bad a position as it was half a year ago. The fourth governing party, ChristenUnie, is traditionally the most stable in the polls. With 4 to 6 seats, the party is maintaining the number of seats it won last year.

smaller parties

Not much has changed in the smaller parties in recent months. JA21 has 7 to 11 seats, the same as half a year ago, the SP on 7 to 9 and Forum for Democracy on 3 to 5, a halving compared to the election result, but the same as half a year ago. Also Volt and the SGP are at 3 to 5 while Denk is at 2 to 4 and BIJ1 and 50Plus are both at 0 to 2.