Voting thriller on March 3: Will the cantons fail the 13th AHV pension?

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An exciting vote will take place on March 3: the initiative for a 13th AHV pension has a good chance among the people, because 61 percent said yes in the first SRG trend survey. But when it comes to the number of stands, things become crucial. There is a risk of a scenario like that of the 2020 Corporate Responsibility Initiative, when the referendum achieved a yes vote of 50.7 percent, but clearly failed by 8.5 votes to 14.5.

A template similar to the 13th AHV pension was the AHV Plus initiative in 2016. This required a 10 percent pension increase – at the time only five states agreed. In contrast, the current initiative only yields 8.3 percent more pensions. Will the more moderate variant help the yes camp?

12 stands have to say yes

To create more stands, at least 12 of the 23 stands must support the initiative. In the six French cantons and Ticino, a yes seems clear. The supporters still have to get five German-speaking Swiss states behind them.

If you take the AHV Plus initiative as an indication, yes shares were highest in the two cantons of Basel and the cantons of Schaffhausen, Solothurn, Bern and Zurich in German-speaking Switzerland. Basel-Stadt was close to the 50 percent threshold with 49.1 percent, while Zurich was far from it with 38.3 percent.

Compensate for the loss of purchasing power

Is the mission of the initiators for a 13th AHV pension unattainable? “No, the starting position today is completely different than eight years ago,” says Yes campaign leader Urban Hodel (38) of the trade union federation.

Rising rents, higher healthcare premiums and energy prices would cause problems for people, as would declining pensions from pension funds. “The general population and especially seniors are losing purchasing power, the 13th AHV pension creates compensation for this, also for future retirees,” says Hodel.

He warns against a no vote: “If the initiative does not go ahead, medium-sized companies will be left empty-handed again.” Moreover, this time there was no visible divide between city and countryside. “Particularly in rural areas, many people from agricultural and commercial environments are even more dependent on the AHV because they often have only a small or no pension fund.” He therefore thinks that the initiative also has good prospects in the rural cantons.

13. AHV pension with a large starting amount

The accompanying SRG trend surveys show that the mood has changed in recent years. The AHV-Plus initiative had a yes share of 49 percent five weeks before the vote, 40 percent ten days before that and ended at 41 percent on Sunday.

The starting level for the 13th AHV pension is completely different: in the first trend study, 61 percent are on their side. The second trend study will be published on Wednesday. But even with a minus similar to the AHV Plus initiative, the 13th AHV pension can still count on a slight increase.

Mobilization decides

In the heated final phase, both sides try to make up ground again. “It will be tight when it comes to more stands, but we are doing everything we can to overcome this hurdle,” says Hodel. “The outcome will be determined by which party can mobilize best in the final spurt.”

The other side, on the other hand, will do everything it can to overthrow the initiative with a double no vote from the people and the cantons. “Anything else would be unpleasant,” says the young liberal president Matthias Müller (31), who is also fighting for a higher retirement age with his pension initiative.

In recent days, attention will once again be drawn to the impending billion-dollar gap in the AHV. “We cannot place this huge burden on the shoulders of young people,” he warns. And he makes it clear: “If we succeed in reducing the 13th AHV pension, we will quickly provide a solution for better pensions for people with lower incomes.”

Source:Blick