In the voting battle for the 13th pension, financing becomes an important point of contention: is the AHV in danger of going bankrupt?

With these adjustments, the Federal Social Insurance Agency (BSV) predicts that the AHV will be in the black by 2030. By then, the assets in the AHV fund will grow from approximately 50 billion francs now to more than 67 billion francs. After that, the operating result goes into the red and the capital decreases year after year. If a 13th AHV pension is added on top of this, the AHV fund will only increase until 2027.

Is the AHV threatened with demise?

“The initiative is driving the AHV to ruin,” the no committee warns. From 2030, the AHV is in danger of running out of money. The 13th AHV pension worsens the problem. “The figures show that we are clearly entering a demographic storm with gigantic cost consequences,” says the young liberal president Matthias Müller (31) – and this without any pension supplement.

The Yes Committee, on the other hand, sees no problem in financing the supplementary pension. The AHV has a sufficiently large financial buffer to be able to award the “thirteenth” without additional contributions until approximately 2030. Only then, if necessary, would the wage contributions of employers and employees each have to be increased by 0.4 percentage points.

And since social security contributions would decrease in other areas, little would change for people. “The financing of the 13th AHV pension is within the framework of the previous social premiums,” says SGB chief economist Daniel Lampart (55).

Bankruptcy AHV “not allowed”

But no decision has yet been made on additional funding. And if no additional income flows arise, in a few years there will be deficits in the AHV account and the cash balance will decline.

But can the AHV really go bankrupt? Will the pensions suddenly no longer continue? The answer is clear: no. She may not!

This is confirmed by the Federal Social Insurance Agency: “The Federal Constitution obliges the Federal Council and Parliament to ensure that the AHV can fulfill its task in the long term,” explains spokesperson Harald Sohns. You should take the necessary steps to secure financing.

Sohns also points to another provision according to which the AHV compensation fund may in principle not fall below the amount of an annual expense. “The compensation fund is therefore also a ‘buffer’ intended to bridge bad economic phases and give politicians sufficient time to make the necessary adjustments to ensure financial balance.”

He makes it clear: “A ‘bankruptcy’ would therefore not be permissible.” Instead, the Federal Council and Parliament must act in a timely manner so that this situation cannot arise.

If necessary, with the emergency law

But that also means: if parliamentarians cannot reach an agreement, the Federal Council would, in the most extreme case, have to intervene with an emergency law – and, for example, release money from the federal treasury for the AHV. Theoretically he could raise VAT or the retirement age. Or even reduce pensions. The emergency law would produce explosive material.

But before that happens, Parliament will consider new proposed solutions. The Federal Council plans savings of around 1 billion francs on widows’ pensions.

And by 2026, SP Minister of Social Affairs Elisabeth Baume-Schneider (60) must submit a proposal to parliament to stabilize the AHV for the period 2030 to 2040. There will also be material for discussion after the vote on March 3 on the AHV initiatives.