Secret document from Bern revealed: “Migration pressure on Europe is increasing”

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The work of the Safety Policy Study Committee started better in the new year than in the old: at the end of 2023, retired VBS executive Christian Catrina (67) threw in the towel as responsible for the committee’s report.

Now the top committee has returned to its main task. Last week, the experts met and discussed a draft report, which should be ready by the summer. ‘NZZ’ resident philosopher Katja Gentinetta (55) stepped in to replace Catrina as responsible for the report.

Part of the concept is available for Blick. “Migration pressure on Europe is increasing. Radicalization in society is becoming increasingly brutal, especially by taking sides in the conflict in the Middle East, which is also reflected in the increase in anti-Semitic activities,” the newspaper said. “The global economic consequences of threatening trade routes could be serious, especially for Switzerland’s open economy.”

The greatest danger comes from Moscow. “Russia has announced a doubling of military spending by 2024 and has turned the country into a war economy,” the draft said. Ukraine remains dependent on support from the West. The outcome of the US elections is extremely uncertain. Presidential candidate Donald Trump claims he can end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. Observers expect the Republican to be willing to compromise with Putin and sacrifice parts of Ukraine.

The conflict in the Middle East also worries the West. The committee sees Israel in a war on multiple fronts: Hamas is raging in the Gaza Strip, the Lebanese Hezbollah is threatening from the north and the Houthi rebels are active in the south. The global economy is threatened by attacks on merchant ships in the Gulf of Aden. “Preventive efforts on the part of the international community, such as a contact group (as was the case in the Balkan Wars) of surrounding states, are important,” the expert panel emphasizes.

Attack on Taiwan expected

Will China invade Taiwan in 2027, as some security experts have been saying for years? The study committee does not expect this. Taiwan is the world leader in semiconductors – an escalation would have “serious global economic consequences”. What is crucial for Europe and therefore for Switzerland is “that the US, with its focus on the Pacific Ocean, does not neglect Ukraine and Western Europe”.

The study committee also looks with concern at the Western Balkans: “Tensions between Serbia and Kosovo are increasing; Political rhetoric, outbreaks of violence and attacks on KFOR troops are a sign of this.”

Slow collapse of the state in Africa

There is no solution in sight in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia: “Despite efforts, a peace treaty is not yet in sight. Armenia wants to break away from Russia; Europe is also interested in reducing Russia’s influence.”

The problem child remains Africa: here the influence of Russia and China is increasing and that of the West is decreasing. “The gradual collapse of the state in West, Central and East Africa is leading, among other things, to the spread of Islamist terrorist groups and increased migration to northern Africa and from there to Europe,” the committee writes. Africa, like other countries in the Global South, criticizes the West’s double standards, including the fact that “much more solidarity is demanded in a war in Europe than in a war in the Global South.”

Source:Blick