Political scientist Louis Perron about the AHV initiative: “An attempt is being made to divide the left-wing camp”

Does the counter-campaign lack a figurehead? The campaign is co-chaired by Melanie Mettler and Thomas Aeschi. This is not a duo with charisma.
Figureheads are useful because problems are often perceived through heads. But having a figurehead for a campaign isn’t the only thing that matters. This is evident from the example of federal councilor Alain Berset: Berset was very committed to the pension provision for 2020, but the proposal had no chance at the time.

How would you rate the counter-campaign on a scale of one to six: how well is it doing its job?
A five. The No campaign is certainly present; for example, I see articles that critically report on the argument of poverty in old age. It is no coincidence that these types of messages appear. There is also an attempt to split the left camp. This is a classic strategy. Former Zurich mayor Elmar Ledergerber, an SP politician, publicly spoke out in favor of a no vote. The counter-campaign also benefits from the character of Switzerland. It is a civil country. The bourgeois camp has a structural advantage when it comes to votes.

Is the starting position really advantageous for the no camp? The AHV is a popular institution and the rising cost of living is a concern for many people.
Receiving more pensions is a tempting prospect. It is therefore not surprising that the idea receives a lot of support. And the message – an extra pension – is very understandable. But a template is only as good as the weakest link in the argument chain. The No campaign just needs to draw attention to this point.

And what is the weakest link?
The finance. The template sounds great, but who should pay for it remains unclear. When voting, Mr. and Mrs. Schweizer always have the public interest in mind; they are not guided solely by their own interests.

Let’s dive into political marketing: what slogan would you use to campaign against the initiative?
Cost is the crucial point, so a good claim is: great idea. Who pays? Voters are open to rational arguments. The No campaign must now cast doubt on the initiative.

What doubts do you mean?
That the template is too expensive and that the wrong people would benefit from it.

Which parts of the country will be decisive for the voting outcome?
German-speaking Switzerland, because the initiative could also fail due to the rejection of the cantons if the proposal is not accepted by the majority of the cantons. And the “shaky” cantons, where the result is likely to be particularly close, are all in German-speaking Switzerland. The German-speaking Swiss rural cantons generally vote on a civil basis.

And which generation needs to be convinced?
The reasoning should be different depending on the age group. But young people often don’t vote. This is probably why it is easier to convince older voters than to mobilize young people.

What are your arguments tailored to the two age groups?
For young people, the focus should be on costs, because they would largely finance the expansion of the AHV. I would like to appeal to the older generations to be sensible: many of them are not dependent on the supplementary pension.

We believe that the major business associations have not yet appeared in a major way in the voting campaign. Do you share this impression?
They may well be active in the background. But I don’t know.

Are some associations holding back because the proposal is popular among their own supporters, for example the trade association?
No. Then they would mainly try to convince their own supporters. The template is too important. The associations cannot take this lightly.

The Federal Council recommends a no vote; the new Minister of Social Affairs, Elisabeth Baume-Schneider, is responsible. How important is your role in this voting campaign?
She is in a difficult position because she personally supports the initiative. Plus, she only took over the department a month ago. Committing yourself to a position that is contrary to your heart and for which you have not prepared yourself is not easy. It suits the bourgeois camp that an SP federal councilor, in contrast to her own party, recommends a no vote.

The counter-campaign has the bigger budget. How important is money in this voting campaign?
It is obviously an important factor; it enables presence and visibility in the media. But money alone is not decisive.

And how important are social media?
The importance is overestimated; social media only helps to mobilize their own supporters. As a rule, only people who make a living from it are enthusiastic about the effectiveness of social media in elections and voting campaigns. To win votes you have to convince people, and that doesn’t happen on Facebook or Television is much more important for this age group.

What pitfalls should supporters and opponents avoid in the coming weeks?
I warn against polemics. The electorate is open to rational arguments, and the two campaigns should operate at this level. You must meet citizens on an equal footing.

What is your prediction for the outcome?
It will be a close call. If I had to bet it all, I’d bet no. Even if a majority votes ‘yes’ at the ballot box, the initiative could fail because of the majority of cantons if a majority of cantons vote ‘no’.

Louis Perron is a political scientist and political advisor with clients at home and abroad. He has run his political consultancy Perron Campaigns in Zurich since 2007 and also holds teaching positions at the Zurich University of Applied Sciences and the University of Zurich.