First SRG trend survey into voting from March 3: 61 percent say yes to 13th AHV pension

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The vote on March 3 promises a voting thriller! There will then be a showdown over the two AHV initiatives, with the trade union federation’s request for a 13th AHV pension taking part in the race with a large lead.

61 percent of voters think the introduction of a 13th monthly wage for pensioners is a good idea. This is the result of the first voting survey that GFS Bern conducted on behalf of SRG. However, 36 percent reject the initiative. The share of undecided people is a paltry 3 percent.

SVP and centrist supporters also said yes

Approval is highest among the SP (83 percent) and the Greens (77 percent). But there are currently also yes majorities among the bourgeois parties: 57 percent of SVP supporters want to accept the initiative, 42 percent are against it. In the middle, 53 percent say yes and 41 percent say no.

The FDP sympathizers are against the initiative with 56 percent no to 41 percent yes. But resistance is greatest among the GLP, where 57 percent want to vote against and 41 percent in favor of the initiative.

What should especially please supporters is that four out of five unaffiliated people are in favor of the initiative.

Residents of Ticino in full force for their 13th AHV pension

In terms of gender, the initiative is slightly better received by women (64 percent in favor) than by men with 58 percent in favor. In the language regions, the differences become considerably larger: approval is highest in Ticino with 79 percent, followed by French-speaking Switzerland with 76 percent. In German-speaking Switzerland, however, this is only 56 percent. And among Swiss abroad, four in five want to put a yes vote at the ballot box.

Plus, the older you are, the more likely you are to say yes. Although the initiative is approved by 55 percent of 18 to 39 year olds, this is as much as 65 percent of seniors.

What is also striking: approval among high earners is declining. However, for those with a household income of more than R11,000 per month, the two camps are still balanced: 48 percent yes versus 46 percent no.

On the yes side, one argument stands out particularly well: the financial situation of retirees must be improved, because many things have become more expensive while pensions have stagnated. Opponents, on the other hand, fear higher taxes.

Pension initiative starts with a backlog

While the supporters of the 13th AHV pension can still hope for a vote victory, the friends of the young liberal pension initiative are losing their skin. Only 41 percent of respondents are currently moving towards a higher retirement age. 53 percent reject the request, the rest have not yet made a decision.

The Young Liberals propose automatism. First, the retirement age must gradually increase from 65 to 66 years in 2033, and then be linked to life expectancy: for each additional month of life expectancy, it must increase by 0.8 months – to 67, 68 or more.

FDP supports the freedom of young people

The proposal finds a clear majority in the FDP: 61 percent yes. Supporters are also in the lead among the Green Liberals with 49 percent against 41 percent.

However, the No share dominates among the other parties. 70 percent of SP supporters reject the request, 62 percent of the Greens and 56 percent of the center. Of the SVP, 51 percent say no, although the yes share is quite high at 45 percent.

Seniors say yes

There are also anomalies with the retirement initiative: 54 percent of seniors approve, while three-fifths of young people say no. It is also exciting in Ticino: the supporters with 45 percent are slightly ahead of the opponents with 43 percent.

Looking abroad is especially important as a yes argument. As is the case in many other countries, raising the retirement age in Switzerland is also a necessary step to safeguard the AHV in the long term, according to proponents.

The main argument against the initiative, however, is that people with low and middle incomes in particular would be forced to work longer, while top earners could afford early retirement. Opponents say this increases inequities in the pension system.

GFS Bern surveyed 19,490 voters for the SRG survey between January 8 and 21. The statistical margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Source:Blick