The West is sounding the alarm: is Putin about to attack NATO?

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Boris Pistorius (63) is sounding the alarm bells. The German Defense Minister warns of an expansion of the war in Ukraine. The Kremlin could soon set its sights on NATO’s eastern flank, a document from his ministry paints bleak pictures.

According to the secret document, the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are particularly at risk. Russian President Vladimir Putin (71) could have his troops invade NATO states as early as the American elections in November.

Swedish Minister of Civil Defense Carl-Oskar Bohlin (38) also warns: “War could break out in Sweden.” Like missile and nuclear researcher Fabian Hoffmann of the University of Oslo: “We are much closer to a war with Russia than most people think.”

Experts do not believe an attack will occur immediately

Is this all just alarmism to revive declining support for Ukraine? Or should we actually fear an imminent attack by Russia on NATO countries?

“I currently do not see a plausible scenario in which an immediate attack by Russia on NATO territory is imminent,” said Marcel Berni (35), military strategist at ETH Zurich. Personnel, equipment and ammunition are trapped in the ongoing trench warfare in Ukraine.

Russia expert Ulrich Schmid (58) from the University of St. Gallen sees it the same way. It is true that the Kremlin repeatedly uses covert actions to open new political fronts and thus destabilize Europe. But a military attack is hardly imminent.

Even the new State Secretariat for Security Policy does not seem to believe in an immediate attack. But Russia is essentially a threat to European security. “It regularly targets politics and public opinion in various European countries with its threats,” says a spokesperson.

Why then the scaremongering of Pistorius & Co.?

Wake up call in return for “European war fatigue”

“It is probably about reminding NATO partners of the urgency of supporting Ukraine,” Schmid estimates. In many places, momentum has waned. For example, Poland, one of Ukraine’s most loyal allies, has announced that it will no longer supply weapons because it first wants to ensure its own defense readiness.

Berni also speaks of “wake-up calls against European war-weariness”. This is also about our own armament efforts. Ultimately, the US could soon turn more to Asia and demand greater defense efforts from the Europeans. Ultimately, it is about Western credibility and therefore also about European security.

Be more careful after previous incorrect predictions

The experts do not want to make everything clear. The threat from Russia remains real. Berni thinks that Putin will likely continue to shy away from a direct military confrontation with NATO because of the defense alliance.

There is a tacit consensus, Schmid adds: NATO avoids becoming a direct party to the war and respects Russia’s nuclear capabilities. The Kremlin, in turn, respects the NATO alliance and only carries out provocations below the war threshold, for example with selective violations of air and sea space.

Moreover: Western countries have become more cautious. Warnings are taken more seriously, says Schmid. Apparently we learned from previous incorrect predictions after being surprised by the Russian invasion of Ukraine almost two years ago.

Source:Blick