New research shows: Alpine glaciers can lose 30 to 50 percent of their volume

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This is demonstrated by scientists from the Faculty of Geosciences and Environment of the University of Lausanne (UNIL) in an international study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

By 2050, at least 34 percent of the ice volume in the European Alps will have disappeared. This was calculated based on a new computer model developed by the authors in collaboration with the University of Grenoble (F), ETH and the University of Zurich. The scientists used deep learning methods to train their model.

In their optimistic scenario, warming will have stopped by 2022, but glaciers will still suffer losses due to inertial phenomena. However, the reality is different as greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise worldwide, as Unil wrote in a press release on Friday.

The second, more realistic forecast therefore paints a much bleaker picture. It is predicted that 46 percent, or almost half, of the ice volume in the Alps will be gone by 2050 if the trend of the past two decades continues. The development is even more dramatic if only the data from the past ten years are extrapolated. In this case, the loss of ice mass would be as much as 65 percent.

The data used to create the scenarios ends in 2022, a year that was followed by an exceptionally hot summer. It is therefore likely that the situation is even worse than described, Samuel Cook, researcher at Unil and lead author of the study, is quoted in the press release.

According to several studies published in recent years, in particular by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Europe’s glaciers could lose between 80 and 90 percent of their volume by 2100. A model from ETH Zurich and the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), published in 2019, also estimated a 50 percent loss by 2050. (SDA)

Source:Blick