Blick explains the scenarios for the elections for the Federal Council: This is how Jositsch gets into the Federal Council

Basel government chairman Beat Jans was the first to get the SP ticket and starts from pole position. In his party he can count on the sympathy of the Council of States, the Welsh and the moderate wing. According to the farmers, he made further progress compared to his competitor Pult.

With his administrative experience and the willingness for dialogue and compromise promised during the hearings, he brings behind him the majority in the center, the FDP, the SVP and the GLP. He also scores points because with him and Basel, a financial equalization donor canton is once again represented in the Federal Council.

Now is the time: don’t make stupid mistakes! Then Jans takes the win.

Probability: high

Graubünden federal councilor Jon Pult sets the hearts of young people on fire. The former associates of the Juso are especially enthusiastic about him and lobby the other factions for him. The Millennial generation should finally be represented in the Federal Council!

The desk scores points because it cannot bend. Among the farmers he represented ‘weak’ SP positions. This is well received by those who prefer a tough party representative with clear positions in the Federal Council. An honest skin of which you know what it stands for.

As a brilliant speaker with urban charm, Pult knows how to win over the bourgeois National Council members and States Council members. And hey, he’s a federal councilor.

Probability: medium

Zurich SP state councilor Daniel Jositsch (58) was humiliated by his faction – and especially by his Zurich Gspänli. Since then he has remained steadfastly silent on the subject. So it remains unclear whether he would accept a wild choice after the shame of not being nominated – although he stated the opposite beforehand.

This creates space for games. There is great dissatisfaction with the official SP ticket among citizens in general and the SVP in particular. When he succeeded Simonetta Sommaruga (63), Jositsch received 58 protest votes. This time too, an attack is being launched from the SVP ranks. If there is too strong a left-wing attack in the seat of Ignazio Cassis (62), the liberal retaliation will come. The SP is punished with the Jositsch election.

Probability: small amount

Freiburg National Councilor Gerhard Andrey wants to officially take a seat in the FDP. He turns his gaze to the Cassis chair. In purely mathematical terms, the Greens actually have more claim to one seat in the Federal Council than the FDP has two.

Andrej can count on the votes of Greens, SP and possibly GLP – together they have a maximum of 87 of the 246 votes. The green attack bounces back. But if the SP supports the green attack, the games are open.

Andrey’s window won’t open until the Berset seat becomes available. An angry block of citizens puts the Greens before their comrades. Especially because entrepreneur Andrey is considered more pragmatic than the two red candidates. And because there is nothing better for the common people than to drive a deep wedge into the red-green camp. Andrey then only has to say yes, which he doesn’t want to do.

Probability: practically zero

It is an open secret: Mitte President Gerhard Pfister (61) would like to become a federal councilor. If he speculates that Defense Minister Viola Amherd (61) will resign, he may miss the momentum that success in national elections brings.

In terms of voter share, the center is only one-to-one behind the Liberals. However, in parliament it is at the top with 44 versus 39 seats. This begs the question: why not now? Against the weakened Cassis!

If Pfister’s name appears on the ballot papers, the SP, the GLP and the Greens will also turn to him to break the right-wing SVP/FDP bloc. The centre-left received 133 votes, Pfister easily crossed the hurdle of 124 votes. As a consolation, the FDP has the vacant position of chancellor.

Probability: deep