Claude Longchamp on the most exciting decisions of the upcoming election Sunday: “The center could become the new heavyweight in the center”

class=”sc-29f61514-0 icZBHN”>

These are the tenth national and state elections that Claude Longchamp (66) has supervised as a political scientist – and they will also be the last. After the elections for the Federal Council in December, Switzerland’s best-known political expert wants to retire permanently.

But Longchamp isn’t thinking much about what will happen after October 22. The focus is entirely on election Sunday. He will assess the latest forecasts and results live on Blick TV from noon. In the interview he explains in advance which races he is particularly enthusiastic about.

Mr Longchamp, have you made an election bet? Or are you not doing this on principle?
Claude Longchamp: I did that once, with former SVP state councilor and later Bern government councilor Elisabeth Zölch. That was 2006. I won. But we still haven’t received the bottle of champagne we bet on. (Laughs.)

The last election poll was published last week. What surprised you about it?
We know that the SVP and SP are gaining ground under the heading of polarization. What is a surprise, however, is the center and how quickly the newly formed party was able to assert itself in the political center. There she could become a new heavyweight. I didn’t expect this a year ago. It was long expected that the GLP would become the great dominator. But it didn’t happen that way.

So the renaming, removing the C from the name, has paid off?
The new name was controversial. Ultimately, the Christian political values ​​orientation distinguished itself from the other parties. But I think, looking back, it was the right decision. The elimination of the C gave the young party an enormous boost. The Youth Center has brought a new way of life and thinking to the party.

Will the center even overtake the FDP? That would be historic.
That is the biggest question of this election. I think it’s possible, but it’s probably a small margin at most. The latest election barometer showed that the number of undecided centrist voters has decreased – but for the FDP this number has increased. The fact that the Liberals have so many undecided people in their ranks so close to the election is insane.

Let’s look at the cantons. Where does it get particularly exciting?
I would like to differentiate this per party. The biggest shift is between the Greens and the SP. Two percent of Green voters want to migrate to the SP in 2019. The SP is likely to win seats in Zurich, Bern and Vaud, and possibly also in Geneva and Solothurn. However, the SP is in danger of losing seats in Graubünden and Basel-Stadt. The Greens can hardly win anywhere.

Where is the SVP likely to make the most gains?
When it comes to the SVP, it is not so clear to say where and at whose expense it will win. This mainly concerns wobbly chairs that you lost last time and were now able to get back. They could increase in Graubünden, Lucerne, Vaud and Ticino. In Thurgau, on the other hand, where the SVP has half the representatives and is effectively overfunded, even the smallest losses can lead to a loss of seats.

And the middle?
It is possible that they will win seats in Aargau, Bern and St. Gallen. In Aargau she could force EPP chairman Lilian Studer out of parliament. In Baselland the center could only lose one seat to the GLP.

Corona skeptic Nicolas Rimoldi could get a seat in Zurich. What are his chances?
I think it’s possible, but it’s not certain. The critics of the measures greatly overestimate themselves. With the abolition of pandemic measures, they have virtually disappeared from public view. The movement is gone – now it’s just a marketing product for individual exponents. The fact that Rimoldi from Lucerne is participating in Zurich is purely a tactic. He knows he only has a chance here.

Due to shifts in population numbers, Basel-Stadt Zurich has to give up one seat. Which resident of Basel should tremble the most?
That’s very difficult to say. GLP state councilor Katja Christ is probably most at risk. But it is also not certain that red-green will get three seats. And it can affect anyone – the danger here is probably slightly greater for SP members Sarah Wyss and Mustafa Atici than for Groen Sibel Arslan.

How threatened is the seat of Samira Marti, who only recently became co-party leader of the SP, in Baselland?
I think the risk of being voted out is small. She is recognized. The seat of Center National Councilor Elisabeth Schneider-Schneiter is wobbling.

What does a look at French-speaking Switzerland promise?
The big problem there is the collapse of the Greens. Four years ago, people said that the future of French-speaking Switzerland would be green. Now they risk slipping to fourth place – behind SP, SVP and FDP, which is the order in French-speaking Switzerland.

To what extent could the war in Israel have an impact on the election results?
If the war benefits anyone politically, it is on the right – i.e. SVP or FDP. This was seen in the war in Ukraine. But I estimate the extent of the influence to be very small. Currently, a maximum of 15 percent of voters have not yet made a decision. Two-thirds of them would have to vote for the SVP so that it could gain one percent. This is completely unrealistic.

2019 were women’s and climate elections. What nickname will this year’s elections have?
After ten federal elections, which I have followed as a political scientist, one thing is certain: as always after major shifts, a yo-yo effect will now occur. So you could talk about the yo-yo elections that await us.

Source:Blick