Surveys predict losses: the Greens are threatened with a French debacle

French-speaking Switzerland in particular has contributed to this historic success: the Greens made particularly strong gains in Geneva (+13.1 percentage points), Neuchâtel (+11.5) and Vaud (+8.4). And the GLP also increased its party strength in Vaud by 4.5 points to 8.4 percent, in Neuchâtel by 5.7 points to 9.1 percent and in Geneva by 3.2 points to 5.4 percent.

Disastrous poll

The increases were also expressed in seats: in Vaud both parties were able to double their number of seats, in Geneva they rose from one to three and in Neuchâtel they won a seat for the first time. Many new French minds moved to the Federal Palace, most of them young and female. The same picture in the Council of States: Lisa Mazzone (35), Adèle Thorens-Goumaz (51) and Céline Vara (38) conquered the Stöckli for Western Switzerland.

Four years later, the champagne bottles will probably remain in the cellar: the eco parties are threatened with heavy losses. October 22 could be a real catastrophe, especially for the Greens. If the current election barometer assumes a loss of two percent throughout Switzerland, that is twice as much in French-speaking Switzerland. With the GLP the scenario is not so bleak, but here too defending the status quo will be a challenge.

Two seats have almost disappeared

This can be seen, for example, in Vaud, the largest canton in western Switzerland: the GLP is expected to lose one of its two seats; compared to 2019, it lacks two things: a list connection and the driving force Isabelle Chevalley (51), who resigned during the parliamentary term.

The Greens also have a shortage of driving forces: the outgoing state councilor Thorens and the former mayor of Lausanne, Daniel Brélaz (73), who will resign in 2022, were the best-known figures and each received many votes. They will lose at least one of the four seats. The endangered eco-seats will likely move to the bourgeois camp – to the SVP and possibly to the center.

Dynamic duo in the Council of States

It is unlikely that the Vaud Greens will have anything to say in the Council of States in the future: National councilor Raphaël Mahaim (39) is preparing to defend Thorens’ seat. But it is already clear to everyone who will represent the canton in the small chamber from December: the Vaud dream team consisting of union boss Pierre-Yves Maillard (55) and former government councilor Pascal Broulis (58).

They served together in the Vaud government for fifteen years and determined cantonal politics in a way rarely seen by a left-bourgeois duo. Under the terms ‘dynamic compromise’ or even ‘Vaud model’, they ensured that Vaud grew from a problem child into a thriving region. FDP finance director Broulis was allowed to generously reduce corporate taxes in a neoliberal style and in return he received more resources for social policy, such as generous premium cuts and family benefits.

It will be interesting to see whether this ‘dynamic’ duo can also be found in Bern.