Vabanque contest in elections in Ticino: SVP boss Chiesa takes the full risk

He is probably the only candidate who has been re-elected so far. But the turbulent elections for the Council of States four years ago, which resulted in the deselection of the long-serving CVP Council of States member Filippo Lombardi (67), show that a residual risk remains – and the president of the largest party would suddenly notice that it has no federal mandate. In this case, it would be a matter of time before he also has to give up the boss position.

Chiesa relies on trust

Why does Chiesa dare to play this Vabanque game? The key word is trust. “If I didn’t trust that I would be re-elected, how could I ask the population to trust me?” Chiesa told Blick. For him, being a candidate for the National Council at the same time would mean that he would already be thinking about defeat. And he doesn’t want that, after surprisingly moving to Stöckli four years ago as Ticino’s first SVP representative. Only in the second voting round, but with a clear lead.

But there is still a residual risk. The seats of the Council of States of Ticino are traditionally occupied by an FDP and a centrist representative. Another party reached Stöckli only three times. The 2019 elections caused a stir when SP woman Marina Carobbio (57) stood as a candidate alongside Chiesa and for the first time in history neither Ticino’s FDP nor Mitte were in the Stöckli.

At that moment, 45 votes made the difference between Carobbio and Lombardi. More coincidence. The SP woman was elected to the cantonal government of Ticino this year and her seat in the Council of States has been vacant since then. The left will hardly be able to defend this anymore.

The FDP and the center are looking for revenge

Now the FDP and the Center are looking for revenge and feel their chance to return to the Stöckli. The center runs together with former national councilor and chairman of the trade association Fabio Regazzi (61), the FDP enters the ring with national councilor Alex Farinelli (41). Regazzi belongs to the right wing of his party, Farinelli to the left wing of the FDP.

A constellation that could suddenly become dangerous for Chiesa if there were a second round of voting. If he actually misses re-election, his political career probably still wouldn’t be over. Chiesa could run for the Lugano city council in 2024, it is said in Ticino.

Who gets the Romano seat?

The battle for the eight seats of the Ticino National Council also promises to be exciting. The FDP and the Center currently have two seats. SVP, Lega, SP and Greens one each. The right-wing bloc SVP/Lega wants to regain the third seat that the Lega lost to the Greens four years ago.

In the elections for the canton council in April, the SVP made gains, but alliance partner Lega lost significantly. Overall, the balance of power between the blocs remained fairly stable. Therefore, the distribution of seats in the National Council elections should remain the same.

When a seat shift occurs, the center should vibrate the most. Because the former centrist National Councilor Marco Romano (40), who actually occupied a shaky seat, is resigning. Moreover, the party was on a list with the FDP and GLP four years ago, but this time it has to survive on its own.

If the center can no longer defend its second seat, the mandate could fall not only to the right, but – depending on the luck of proportional representation – also to the left.