Why is everyone talking about nuclear weapons again?
At least since the Crimean bridge was blown up, Russian President Vladimir Putin (70) has been on the defensive. The move – probably carried out by Ukrainians – shows that he is not even in charge of the Crimea, which he occupies. Russia also suffers defeat after defeat on the front line.
For this reason, Western pundits and leaders are increasingly concerned that Putin is being cornered so much that he can only help himself by using tactical nuclear weapons. Putin and his entourage have also more or less openly threatened the use of nuclear weapons. The focus is on tactical nuclear weapons.
What are Tactical Nuclear Weapons?
Tactical nuclear weapons are relatively small weapons, they are used – just like conventional weapons – to fight enemy forces on the battlefield. Their action radius and, as a rule, their explosive power are significantly lower than with strategic weapons.
Strategic nuclear weapons are much bigger. They weren’t built to be used in the first place – but to deter opponents from being reluctant to attack. That is why the nuclear standoff between the Soviet Union and the US during the Cold War was called the “balance of terror”.
How likely is the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
It wasn’t until Friday that Putin again threatened a “global catastrophe” if his troops met those of NATO. US President Joe Biden (79), former German Chancellor Angela Merkel (68) and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg (63) have been very concerned in recent days. However, there is also a lot of rhetoric with Putin, as experts assure.
The Swiss Ministry of Defense still considers the use of tactical nuclear weapons unlikely. Werner Salzmann (59), chairman of the Security Policy Committee of the Council of States, agrees: «Putin has not changed, he is and remains unpredictable. However, according to our information, the risk of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine is currently low.”
How would the West react to this?
NATO is officially silent about it, but key voices such as French President Emmanuel Macron (44) or former CIA chief David Petraeus (69) have said more or less clearly that nuclear weapons would not be used to fight back. This also has to do with the fact that according to experts this is not necessary. “Meanwhile, the conventional weapons of the West have evolved to the point where they pose as much of a threat as nuclear weapons used to be,” ex-CIA analyst George Beebe told the Tages-Anzeiger.
What would be the consequences for Switzerland if nuclear weapons were used in Ukraine?
Human suffering in Ukraine would be great, the symbolic effect would be enormous. Furthermore, we would hardly feel any effects in Switzerland. The radiation effect would be very small, as nuclear scientist Walter Rüegg told the NZZ: “If there’s no wind, the material comes back down within a radius of about two kilometers.”
Depending on the wind speed, the so-called fallout zone can also be 30 kilometers or more. And after a few days, most of the fission products have disintegrated, according to the former chief physicist of the Swiss army: “I doubt that we would be able to detect any radioactivity here with our normal measuring instruments.”
What is the danger of nuclear power plants in the war zone?
Certainly more than tactical nuclear weapons. At Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhya, the power that must be used to cool the radiating nuclear material went out again this week. Security politician Salzmann is also concerned “that an accident could happen at one of the nuclear power plants”.
What would be the impact if a nuclear power plant exploded?
They would be larger than if tactical nuclear weapons were used. “It’s about completely different dimensions,” says nuclear scientist Rüegg. “Chernobyl released about 400 times as much of the radioactive isotope cesium-137 as the Hiroshima bomb.”
But even in this case, Switzerland would only be marginally affected, as Andreas Bucher of the Federal Office for Civil Protection (Babs) says: “Even in the event of a nuclear power plant accident, the health-threatening effects would be manageable. For that, the distance is just too big.”
Bucher reassures: “If there were a nuclear accident, the population would not have to go to shelters.” These are intended for an armed conflict in Switzerland. “Instead, such a scenario is conceivable after the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. Certain harvesting and grazing bans would be possible.”
How is Switzerland prepared?
The national emergency center – together with authorities from other countries and international organizations – continuously monitors the radiological situation, Bucher explains. Because no major measures are required in the event of a nuclear incident in Ukraine, correct information is important. “We are prepared for that,” says the Babs spokesperson.
Security politician Salzmann also says the authorities involved are currently going through different scenarios. “First of all, it’s about protecting the population,” he explains. “But secondly, you also have to take into account that such an accident can cause a larger migration movement.” In fact, the use of nuclear weapons – and even more so a nuclear accident – is likely to trigger a further flight from Ukraine.
Do you need to prepare – for example, by buying iodine tablets and taking them prophylactically?
Absolutely not, says Babs spokesperson Bucher: “Iodine tablets are intended for a nuclear accident in Switzerland and the surrounding area.” He urgently warns: “Do not take iodine tablets as a preventive measure. These are only effective if you take them at the right time.” The National Emergency Center would order when that is.