Reactivation, transitism, extractivism and unemployment

According to statistics preliminary INEC gross domestic product results during 2022, the Panamanian economy would exceed the pre-pandemic level by 5.7%, which in principle shows that reactivation compared to 2019 it would be more than complete. However, it is a phenomenon with significant inequalities and asymmetries, which have a special significance for understanding the specific situation in which our economy finds itself.

There is a very clear contrast between the state of exploitation of mines and quarries and construction activities. While the activity is on first category of activity In 2022, the economic sector achieved a level of activity 179.6% higher than that recorded in 2019, the situation was different from that in construction. In the latter case, the level of activity for the market was 20.1% lower than that recorded in 2019, and in the case of production for own final needs, the decline was 22.9%.

the rest category that showed a level in 2022 Much lower than what happened before the pandemic is the manufacturing industry, which in 2022. achieved a lower GDP 7.2% compared to that registered in 2019. The situation is even more serious in the case of hotels and restaurants, considering that in this case GDP in 2022 It turned out to be 32.7% lower than in 2019. Also, the activity of eClasses recorded a lower level than in 2019 (10.8%) The basic characteristic of the so-called of the process of reactivating the Panamanian economy is that it is far from solving the problems related to job insecurity.

According to the statements of the President of the Republic, the unemployment rate at the end of 2019 economically reached 9.9% of the population active, this represents a higher level than that recorded in 2019 (7.1%) and above all than that recorded in 2018 (6.0%). The persistence of informality affected 48.2% of the population employed in non-agricultural activities.

Contrary to what the spokespersons of the economically dominant sectors think, this problem is clearly connected with the characteristics of the so-called reactivation process, which is not unrelated to nature transit style structural – extractivist economy.

To begin with, it should be noted that a good part of the “reactivation” is the result of the growth of exploitation of surface mines for export, which in the period from 2018 to 2022 participated with 33.4% of GDP growth. The problem is that it is not an activity that creates excitement level of employment per unit of product. According to “Structural Analysis of the Panamanian Economy: Labor Market” from Minzer and Orozco (2017), mining and quarrying creates only 3 direct jobs and 7 indirect jobs for an increase of one million balbo. High environmental impact with low occupancy. This contrasts with the so-called other manufacturing industries which create 38 direct and 8 indirect jobs for the same increase in effective demand.

Other cases of lack of capacity to create employment style transit development – ​​extractivists give ACP and air transportation. In the first of these sectors, only 3 direct and 13 indirect jobs per each million balbo of additional effective demand. In the second case, it is about air traffic with only 4 direct and 2 indirect jobs. There is a clear contrast with construction: 16 direct and 8 indirect jobs. A profound change in the current style is urgently needed development of the country.