Inflation is bad. Economic growth is a must. A recession is on the horizon. You don’t even want to put that word into your mouth. Better to say, “The R-Word” goes around in circles.
Welcome to the world of economists. Let Hopfried Stutz disturb your prayers.
First, about inflation and the question of why consumer prices have not risen for a long time, since central banks literally flooded the markets with money after the 2008 financial crisis. Well, one reason is increasing globalization. Pressure on prices is exerted by cheap imports of goods from the Far East and, above all, from China.
Less for economic, but more for political reasons, some have come to realize that deeply imported goods also cast a shadow and that extreme globalization is undeniable. It creates dependencies. This is problematic. That’s why there’s a bit of deglobalization going on today, which, to the dismay of economists, is pushing prices up. Is breaking dependencies really that bad?
Economists see another reason for rising prices in environmental restructuring. The long overdue transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy requires huge investments. Is it really so bad if you break free from the dependence of Russia and the Persian Gulf countries? Is it really that bad if you’re trying to cut CO₂ emissions? Ecological conversion cannot be obtained for free. It won’t work without price increases.
Regarding economic growth: Economists expect growth of about 1 percent. Thus, according to statistics, Switzerland avoided recession. So this growth figure is a hoax anyway. In recent years, it has repeatedly happened that immigration has grown faster than the gross national product. This means that the gross national product per capita has decreased. We had something like a recession per capita, but the collective depression did not take over our minds.
Gross national product in Switzerland is growing in large part only thanks to unrestricted immigration. The question of whether this can be called mass immigration, by analogy with the SVP initiative in February 2014, is still unknown.
So, once again: if the gross national product is decreasing, that is, the sum of all goods and services is about to decrease, then welfare, measured in Swiss francs, is decreasing, at least on paper. However, this does not mean that the quality of life of each person is also reduced.
It should also be noted that, in part, I wrote this column on a packed train. Although, unlike others, I did not have to sit on the stairs.