The pressure on reserves is increasing: the balance to pay for imports is increasing

in January balances pending payment of imports increased againby about USD 940 million, and the inventory would increase 9000 million dollars in 12 months, according to estimates from 1816. It is about the difference between calculated and paid imports, mandatory financing provided by the monetary authority.

analyst Salvador Vitelli shows that there has been an increase compared to the figures for November and December, after the average between June and October it rose to $1.3 billion per month.

commercial debt

He thought about the difference between what Trade index Argentine vs BCRA foreign exchange balance month by month: “From last February to this past January, he gives me a debt of 10,000 million dollars. It exploded after Junewhen it was decided that importers must seek their own financing,” he warns.

In his opinion, this puts Central reserves under control, “Because as you accumulate more debt, at some point those dollars will have to be released net reserves are barely 4 billion US dollars and is moving towards a complicated foreign exchange panorama, with production and prices falling agricultural goods in decline“.

in January the balance of payments for imports increased againby about USD 940 million, and the inventory would increase 9000 million dollars in 12 months, according to the estimates of 1816. That is the difference between calculated and paid imports, mandatory financing provided by the monetary authority.

exchange rate pressure

His colleague Marcelo Elizondo agrees that this outstanding balance is part of it exchange rate basket this year: “It will be lower dollar income from exports due to a 10% drop compared to last year due to the drought, for which it will be necessary to offset import dollars with less export dollars, to which we must also add the pressure of this debt”.

In this framework, Argentina has balance of services deficit, in addition to the pressure for dollars due to international, private and public obligations.

EXCHANGE VOLTAGE

“Looking ahead, the exchange rate problem is also the debt that must be covered. As well as debt in pesos, fiscal and quasi-fiscal, and ON in fiscal dollars, with fewer export dollars, it is necessary to cover the demand for importsElizondo explains.

It puts the Central Bank’s reserves under control, “because as it accumulates more debt, at some point those dollars will have to be released. Net reserves are barely US$4 billion and it’s heading for a complicated foreign exchange outlook, with production falling and agricultural prices falling” .

“Since it was necessary to limit a lot in 2022 due to the trade administration, last year’s balance remains and everyone agrees that we will have exchange year complicated by demand for dollars extra because this is an election year, where there are always some more pressure on the dollar and less supplysince there is short-term behavior and speculators who choose to dollarize their portfolios,” he concludes.

Unknown

The question everyone is asking is Where will the dollars come from to pay this debt? with importers. According to the Rosario stock exchange, meteorological projections are not optimistic about the possibility of rainfall that would enable the reversal of the precipitation deficit accumulated in February.

Together Exports of the agro-export complex could fall by more than 15,000 million dollars in this scenario, with a consequent impact on local economic activity and foreign exchange balance.

In Delphos, they wonder how the government will manage the tensions between the accumulation of reserves and activities in context decline in exports of agricultural products rising international interest rates and electoral needs.