WTO: No collapse in trade after attack on Ukraine

The WTO assumes that world trade will grow by well over three percent in 2022. Figures will be published in April. “World trade is doing well against the background of war,” WTO chief economist Ralph Ossa said in Geneva on Thursday.

Prices for war-affected goods also rose less than feared. Economists had not ruled out an 85 percent price increase in poorer countries, as Russia blocked Ukraine’s exports and suffered export problems due to sanctions. In fact, it rose 17 percent there, according to the WTO. The biggest price increase was in corn with 24.2%.

Countries found other sources for products such as wheat, corn, sunflower products, fertilizer, oil and gas, palladium, which they had previously imported from Russia or Ukraine. For example, Ethiopia, which buys 45 percent of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine, imported more wheat from the USA, making Argentina a brand new supplier.

It’s not economists’ failure that the worst-case scenarios—trade growth slumping to about 0.5 percent—didn’t materialize, according to the WTO. Governments have reacted differently as they put up trade barriers during the financial crisis nearly 15 years ago. Many found it easier than expected to find new suppliers or change products. Further expansion of the multilateral trading system with predictable rules further increases resilience in crises.

According to the report, Ukrainian exports fell 30 percent in value. Russia’s exports increased by 15.6 percent in value, mainly due to the rise in fuel, grain and fertilizer prices. Russia’s export volume has shifted to China and India, but is estimated to have fallen slightly relative to the WTO. Due to the sanctions, trade collapsed, especially in industrial goods, vehicles, pharmaceutical products and aviation components.

(SDA)

Source :Blick