The economic barometer rose three points from November (revised from 89.5 to 89.2) to 92.2 points, as ETH economic research institute KOF announced on Friday.
This is the first upward move in six months. Previously, the indicator had fallen almost monthly from its high of 106.6 points last January. However, despite the current upward movement, the barometer is below its long-term average of 100 for the eighth time in a row.
Exceeded analysts’ expectations
With 92.2 points, the economic barometer reached the level of September again. This exceeded the expectations of analysts who were expecting a value between 89.5 and 91.0 points. The prospects for the Swiss economy are therefore getting a little brighter for the beginning of 2023, but remain low. In November, the barometer dropped to its lowest level since the summer of 2020.
KOF wrote that the relatively strong upward move of the barometer was driven mainly by indicators from the manufacturing sector and “other services”. Indicators from the banking and insurance sector and the accommodation sector also gave positive signals.
Industry and construction sector dominate the economy
The strongest drivers in industry and construction are employment prospects and job status. KOF stated that the evaluation of production capacities and competitive situation also made a positive contribution. Indicators evaluating the situation in production were very negative.
In terms of industry, it looks best for wood products and metal industries. Besides the electrical industry, the chemical and pharmaceutical industries are also on the rise. “On the other hand, indicators covering the paper and printing sector are giving a strong negative signal,” wrote KOF.
The KOF economic barometer is a leading indicator for the development of the Swiss economy, which consists of a large number of individual indicators. There are 608 of them since the last revision. These are combined into an overall indicator using statistically determined weights. (SDA/shq)