This was announced by the national statistics office Rosstat in Moscow on Wednesday, based on preliminary figures. Economists had expected a sharper decline of 4.7 percent. We are already in the second quarter, completely shaped by the war against Ukraine that started on February 24. In the winter quarter, the Russian economy grew by 3.5 percent. In the spring, GDP had already shrunk by 4.0 percent. Especially Western countries had decided to impose comprehensive sanctions because of the war.
A recession could peak in the first three months of next year, with economic output falling more than eight percent, according to a poll by the Bloomberg news agency. Therefore, it is unlikely that the economy will grow again until the third quarter of 2023.
Economists at US bank Morgan Stanley have this week only voiced their skepticism about the future of the Russian economy: “We see a sustained shock on the supply side and forced structural change towards an economy with a lower technology standard, which will lead to a longer economy.” will lead to stagnation and lower potential growth».
(SDA)