In the first nine months of 2022, Swiss online retail sales fell 1.7 percent. However, Patrik Kessler, Managing Director of the Swiss Retail Association, said Tuesday at the “Retail Forum Switzerland” that it is “a question of perspective”. If you take the year before the crisis as a basis, plus is still close to 50 percent.
Considering the huge increase during the corona pandemic, it is remarkable that now – after the end of the pandemic – there is no larger decline. “The Corona Shift seems sustainable,” says Kessler.
“Trade is actually going well – and yet something is coming our way,” Kessler continues. According to Kessler, the current situation hangs over online commerce like the sword of Damocles. “If the energy supply is cut off, online commerce disappears,” he says.
According to his forecast, sales in 2022 as a whole should be kept at roughly the same level as in 2021. Starting next year, market research institute GfK again assumes 8 to 10 percent growth, similar to 2021 Online. Trade in Germany increased by 9.9 percent compared to the previous year, with CHF 14.4 billion.
More than 85 percent (12.3 billion) of that amount went to Swiss retailers, according to GfK’s figures. As foreign online commerce first saw a turning point in 2021 – 2.1 billion, which remained at the same level as the previous year – domestic providers increased and gained more market share. This development is likely to continue, as GfK’s Michel Rahm explains at the forum.
Retailers combining fixed and internet are also likely to experience above-average growth in the future. As Rahm says, such “omnichannel providers” have grown at an above-average rate in the recent past. However, they still sell relatively little compared to pure online retailers like Swiss industry leader Digitec Galaxus.
A development observed in the current year will continue: There is now a shift in retail after things like furniture and do-it-yourself gained importance during the pandemic and DIY and furniture stores benefited. Leisure and leisure products such as travel are also in increasing demand.
As Rahm points out, how retail trade – including fixed – will develop in the current year also depends on other factors such as the evolution of the Ukrainian war, global supply and the evolution of the corona pandemic. Inflation and price volatility also play an important role.
Kessler assumes that Swiss retail will again benefit from a “consumption spree” by the end of the year. “We’ll be able to sell well again for a month or two,” he said. However, the Christmas sales would already be shifted to Black Friday. In times of inflation, consumers try to bargain for Christmas.
“But we need to get off to a cold start in the new year,” says Kessler. While concerns of a possible power outage are no longer so acute, it will likely be a time of uncertainty with a “very hard start”. “But actually all dealers should have had two golden years.” This means that some profits have to be set aside and therefore retailers should be able to handle a crash well.
(SDA)