Martin Neff, 63, chief economist at Credit Suisse and Raiffeisen; now a young entrepreneur: “I’ve been wrong so often.”

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Martin Neff, 63, stands in front of the window of the opulent Raiffeisen headquarters at Zurich Airport. The gaze shifts towards the distance. “Neff is coming out,” the economist jokes. He will retire in a few days, but he will not retire.

Behind him lies a dazzling career as chief economist at Credit Suisse and Raiffeisen, and ahead of him is adventure as a young entrepreneur. He wants to start over with his Lokavor initiative. Stay true to yourself. He invests his money and time not in a flashy financial instrument, but in a platform that connects local grocers and producers with customers.

Neff is a man of simple words: “I always wanted to convey my knowledge and expertise in a way that wider segments of society could understand me.” He envisioned his way into the hearts of the Swiss with his Swiss German with a Baden touch.

early immigrant

Throughout his numerous appearances in the service of his banks, Neff always valued his exchanges with his customers. He valued ordinary people at Raiffeisen slightly more than “the somewhat aloof customers in private banking at CS”. He will miss this dialogue a little from now on.

Neff grew up in Konstanz (D). At the age of 17, he left home, crossed the Rhine to Kreuzlingen TG and, as he noted with a wink, moved in with his girlfriend. After completing his studies, he started working in an association of master builders, where he gained in-depth knowledge of the real estate market. In 1992, Neff moved to the then-SKA, where his expertise was urgently needed. The country is falling into a deep recession as Switzerland experiences its worst real estate crisis in years.

“This was Switzerland’s subprime crisis, so to speak,” Neff recalls. “Loans were given blindly, the market was not completely transparent. SKA urgently needed someone who knew something about construction.”

When the horse’s tail is on the brink of the abyss

Neff’s trademarks are his sharp analysis, penetrating gaze, and unusually long hair for a banker. “I was a hippie and drove around in a Citroën 2CV.” He sees himself as a trendsetter rather than a revolutionary in banking: “In economics, in research, the dress code wasn’t so strict back then; so which banker still wears a tie today?”

Only once did he almost have to lose his hair. It was back when Neff tied her hair into a ponytail. «The only person who asked me about this was Rainer E. Gut. It was in the mid-1990s.” But CS’s father only indirectly threatened the economist: “Once upon a time there was a porter with a pigtail, he cut him off.”

But his hair will stay long and Neff will be able to continue his career in CS. The end of his former employer saddens him: “It’s not an easy situation emotionally, I know many people who still work there, who are serious and do their job well. And best of all, they don’t make “incredible” amounts of money. “This is a very sad chapter in Swiss financial history.” However, the brand had lost so much of its value in recent years that there was not much left to save.

From the rain on the eaves

Neff criticizes the high bonuses from which he once enjoyed, but which have long since become disproportionate to income: “The bank has become more and more a self-service store, making itself less and less available to customers. as it’s supposed to be.”

His down-to-earth attitude at Baden helped him when he moved from CS to Raiffeisen 10 years ago: “It wasn’t a culture shock for me.” There was something else that made him even more angry: “At that time, I came from a bank whose image was quite damaged. And I found myself in a bank with the best image. Until the ‘escapes’ of Pierin Vincenz (67) created a negative image.”

Naturally, Neff’s banking world and his own guild have little use for self-proclaimed stars. “There are some chief economists or chief analysts who are selfish anyway – but we’re all just cooking with water.”

And they are wrong too: “I have been wrong very often. “For example, I seriously underestimated the consequences of the subprime crisis,” Neff admits self-critically. He neither accurately assessed their explosive power nor predicted the global recession that would follow.

Prophet of Parity

But in his long career as a forecaster there were two more direct blows: the euro-franc parity and the end of inflation in 1998. At the time, everyone believed that inflation would continue to rise, only Neff disagreed, and he was right. “For me, this was my best guess ever. What helped was that the global economy had been lurching from one crisis to another for years, so there was no reason for a surge in growth and prices.

In July 2019, Neff announced on Sonntagsblick: “Parity is coming.” – and he was right about that too. At that time, 1 euro was 1.10 francs, but today it is only 95 cents.

Now it’s time for the latest prediction and the biggest problem of the global economy: “Globally, debts are too high, since the financial crisis we have no longer been able to break out of this vicious circle of support obligations.” “We are leaving the economy increasingly indebted and supporting consumers to keep their morale high.” But this serves mainly the re-election of politicians, not the economy.

Noise in basement

With one notable exception: Switzerland. “Switzerland did many things much better than many other countries.” Even after Corona, debts have not gotten out of control and the strong franc forces our industry to constantly work on its competitiveness. Neff believes the global economy is reeling from recession, but Switzerland will also grow this year: by around 0.5 percent.

We hope he is right about this. Neff is now putting away his pen and will only be making noise in the practice basement with an electric guitar in hand. Not to get on the next big stage, just for fun.

Source :Blick