India will soon have more inhabitants than China – the order has changed since 1800

China has been the most populous country in the world for hundreds of years. However, according to a United Nations report, the “Middle Kingdom” will now soon be overtaken by India. It should be ready in three months.

India will not give up the top spot any time soon. According to UN calculations, China’s population will begin to shrink as early as 2027, while India’s will continue to grow until 2067 before declining slightly.

The fact that India will soon have more inhabitants than China is due to the significantly higher birth rate: where women in China only have 1.2 children on average, in India this is almost double at 2.05. In addition, the population of the South Asian country is significantly younger: almost a quarter of the Indian population is under 15 years old, almost half is under 25 years old.

The situation is very different in China, where people under the age of 25 make up less than a quarter of the total population. The change is also a result of Chinese politics. To control population growth, the Chinese government has tried since the 1960s to limit the number of children per family. A strict one-child policy was introduced in the 1980s.

A relaxation of the rule has hardly helped in recent years. Although three children per family have been allowed since 2021, birth rates are not rising significantly. In the coming years, China will therefore increasingly have to deal with the consequences of an aging society.

India faces other problems: the population in the poorer regions in the north is growing much faster than in the economically better regions of the country. Economists attribute many positive qualities to such young societies: they are considered optimistic, progressive and dynamic, boasting an abundance of labor and consumers eager to shop.

But in India it is different. India’s social development lags behind population growth. For the more than one million school-leavers in the urban population, there is hardly any work every day, and many in rural areas have to make do with poorly paid odd jobs. The unemployment rate is currently around 7.5 percent – ​​and the trend is rising.

Population growth can become a time bomb. Experts warn of increased violence and unrest if the aspiring masses see no hope for the future. Politicians have long recognized the problem, but pervasive corruption and excessive bureaucracy paralyze planned reform programs.