The ETH model is intended to control the distribution of drugs

Bottlenecks in the supply of medicines can be postponed and resolved through better coordination. Researchers at ETH Zurich came to this conclusion with a new model that measures in real time how adaptable and resilient a sales system is.

The model presented in the journal ‘Science Advances’ could also help regulatory authorities in Europe better monitor the supply chains of high-demand medicines, according to a statement on Thursday from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich ( ETH Zurich).

Even if multiple wholesalers are affected by a supply bottleneck for a particular drug, there are usually still enough drugs available in the overall drug distribution system, the university said.

The ETH model can therefore show how unused supplies of a scarce drug can be most efficiently distributed. In the pharmaceutical chain, manufacturers and end users such as pharmacies and hospitals are often connected through multiple wholesalers who store their stocks in distribution centers. According to the researchers, it would be possible to divert medicines via these intersections – comparable to a navigation model that shows diversion routes in a traffic jam.

“In this way, supply bottlenecks can be combatted without necessarily having to produce more immediately,” said research leader Frank Schweitzer in the ETH Zurich statement.

To develop their model, the researchers examined the entire opiate distribution system in the US between 2006 and 2014, as ETH Zurich explained. The logistics data required for this comes from the American drug enforcement agency DEA and has been published in the context of a lawsuit against the drug manufacturer Purdue Pharma. The data contains more than 40 billion distribution routes between manufacturers, retailers and end users.

(jam/sda)