The 2024 voting year is a “nightmare” for Baume-Schneider

Switzerland is considered a country with many referenda. Lately, however, this cliché has hardly proven true at the federal level. In 2023, three proposals were only voted on on June 18: the OECD minimum tax, the climate protection law and the Covid law. Two dates had previously been canceled due to a lack of voting templates.

Only one voting Sunday in 18 months: This is unusual, but can also be explained by the fact that issues are typically not voted on in the second half of an election year. This has led to a “Pendzenberg” that will have to be removed in 2024. An appeal is made to the electorate, just like to the Federal Council.

Two members stand out: UVEK head Albert Rösti (SVP) will have to represent a maximum of three entries. But it will be very difficult for Elisabeth Baume-Schneider (SP), who has just replaced Alain Berset at the Ministry of the Interior (EDI). In extreme cases, she must stand as a candidate seven times, in four cases against her own left-green electorate.

The Jura resident cannot even dream of a grace period of 100 days. Already on March 3 she has to make two delicate assists People’s initiative of the Trade Union Federation for a 13th AHV pension and the Initiative of the Young Liberalsthat wants to increase the retirement age to 66 and then link it to life expectancy.

She will have a hard time with the electorate. The prospect of a 13th AHV pension, on the other hand, has received great support in the first studies, even among the grassroots of the bourgeois parties. The cantonal branch of the SVP in Geneva has adopted the yes slogan. And next Tuesday the initiative committee will open its voting campaign.

Elisabeth Baume-Schneider must therefore walk a delicate tightrope right at the start of her term at the EDI and represent the no slogans of the Federal Council and Parliament. Albert Rösti had a similar problem with the climate protection law. He ‘solved’ it by limiting the obligation for a ‘yes’ vote to a minimum acceptable to the SVP.

For EBS, however, the 13th AHV pension is just the beginning. Also at the Reform of company pension provision (BVG) she has to compete with the SP and the unions. They are challenging the complex referendum template and are likely to revive the 2010 ‘pension theft’ campaign. The vote will take place in June or September.

There will almost certainly be a vote on June 9 on two referendums on health policy: the Cost-inhibiting initiative the center party and the Premium assistance initiative the SP. In the Federal Chancellery’s planning they were actually scheduled for March 3. The initiative committees had to already submit their texts for the voting booklet.

However, the middle-class majority in the Federal Council favored pension initiatives at the last minute. The leaders of the center and the SP were furious and suspected a “plot”. With the postponement until June, the Federal Council hopes that the anger about the increase in health insurance premiums will have ‘disappeared’ somewhat by then.

However, such delaying maneuvers have not worked in previous cases, such as Thomas Minder’s rip-off initiative. The SP initiative also has a good chance of success, because even medium-sized companies feel the pressure of constantly rising healthcare premiums. It is again a difficult matter for Baume-Schneider.

And the next one follows immediately: December’s Uniform financing of outpatient and inpatient services in healthcare (EFAS) is opposed by the VPOD union. The health minister will be particularly challenged as the reform was celebrated as a major breakthrough.

The vote may not take place until 2025, because another template from the EDI is ready for voting: the one launched by corona and vaccination skeptics People’s Initiative “For Freedom and Physical Integrity”. It challenges an imaginary mandatory vaccination and is recommended for rejection by the Federal Council and Parliament without a counter-proposal.

Albert Rösti, head of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications (UVEK) department, also has a lot to do this year, although not as much as his colleague Baume-Schneider. It should be on June 9th Biodiversity Initiative come before the people, also because a moderate counter-proposal failed due to resistance from the farmers.

Next week there will also be a referendum led by the VCS against the referendum decided by Parliament Highway extension submitted. The vote is expected to take place in June or September. Despite broad left-green opposition, the proposal could be adopted, according to a Watson poll.

It is still unclear whether the referendum will be against the so-called Framework decision for a safe electricity supply with renewable energy sources comes approx. It is “only” supported by smaller environmental organizations. Only the Franz Weber Foundation has a certain clout. Time is short as the referendum deadline ends on January 18.

Federal Councilor Rösti has the advantage over Baume-Schneider in that he does not have to compete with his own people on any proposal. It would be possible that the SVP would say no to the coat decree, but that is very unlikely. Major exponents are critical of the proposal, but in the final vote a majority of the faction voted yes.

In addition to the two ‘hard workers’, as things stand now, only one federal councilor is needed this year: Minister of Economic Affairs Guy Parmelin must act as decided by parliament Change in rental law after the tenants’ association opposed the “double referendum” on two aspects.

No other voices are to be expected. Various popular initiatives have been submitted, but these are still in the early stages of consideration by the Federal Council and Parliament. In principle, parliament decided to relax the War Materials Act, but now the Federal Council must first develop the corresponding revision.

It may be that things will be a bit quieter for a while after the 2024 voting marathon. For Elisabeth Baume-Schneider, the large-scale operation against her own people is both a blessing and a curse. It could damage the relationship with her party, but offers the opportunity to definitively correct her image as a misstep in the Federal Council.