Does Alain Berset really want to stay? Then a tough year awaits him

Will he stay or will he go? Federal President Alain Berset has indicated several times that he wants to seek re-election in December. About last week at the Swiss Economic Forum in Interlaken, in response to a very suggestive question from SRF moderator Reto Lipp. He has very large files and he wants to “complete” them, Berset said.

The 51-year-old from Freiburg is the youngest and longest-serving member of the Federal Council. Lately there has been repeated speculation about a resignation, especially in connection with the Corona Leaks affair. In this case, the former special investigator is now more in the dark than the SP Federal Council.

The pandemic had pushed the health minister to his limits. Now he seems to have energy again. If he actually wants to stay and is re-elected, a very tough first half of 2024 awaits him. Because that applies to the big files. In the worst case, he must represent five Home Office votes.

On Tuesday, the National Council overturned the Young Liberals’ pension initiative. Earlier, during the summer session, he had narrowly voted in favor of a counter-proposal, but the responsible committee was unable to reach an agreement. This was mainly due to the zigzagging course of the SVP, which traditionally struggles with old age provision.

The initiative, which calls for a retirement age of 66 and a gradual adjustment of life expectancy, will be put to the vote without a counter-proposal, probably on March 3, 2024. At the same time, two other proposals are ready to vote: the citizens’ initiative of the trade union federation for a 13th AHV pension and the BVG reform.

The left and trade unions have held a referendum against them. According to Blick, the required 50,000 signatures were clearly exceeded. Because there are normally no actual bills to vote on in the second half of an election year, there could be a “Super Sunday” on March 3, 2024, with three retirement bills.

It is a spicy constellation, with a left and right popular initiative and a controversial pension fund reform. A triple no would come as no surprise considering how closely accepted the AHV 21 was with the retirement age of 65 for women. At the same time, leftist attempts to expand the AHV repeatedly failed.

Alain Berset would be challenged, but that’s not all. In his department’s second notorious reform building site, health policy, parliament is currently wrestling with two popular initiatives: the center party’s cost-cutting initiative and the SP’s request calling for a significant reduction in health care premiums.

In both cases, a counterproposal is being prepared. The sharpest tooth in the form of binding cost and quality targets has already been pulled from the middle initiative. Only at the second attempt did the Council of States agree to a counter-proposal to the SP bonus initiative, realizing that otherwise it would have a good chance of success.

The amount of the premium discounts that the cantons should adopt is still under discussion. If the “stingy” variant of the Council of States – 356 million francs – prevails, the SP will probably stick to its citizens’ initiative. Depending on how the debate goes, both bills will be ready for the referendum after the autumn session.

That means: in extreme cases, Alain Berset will have to represent five voting proposals in March. That would also be a tough program for the Corona-hardened Federal Council. It will hardly come to that. A rule of thumb states that a federal council member may represent only one bill on a voting Sunday. This is absolutely not possible.

As mentioned, the three bills on old-age provision in March and the two bills on health policy on June 9, 2024 appear to be a “way out”. This depends on the outcome of the deliberations in Parliament. If two “acceptable” counter-proposals are developed, the popular initiatives are likely to be withdrawn.

In any case, Federal Councilor Berset will have a tough first half of the year. If he really wants to continue. Last December, the majority of the middle class refused him a transfer to the finance or foreign affairs department. And he will hardly get another chance any time soon. A layoff in the autumn is therefore not ruled out.