New threats that accelerate climate change

The international collaboration of scientists identified 27 climate feedback loops, i.e. factors that trigger processes that intensify global warming and worsen the consequences of climate change.

The study – a collaboration of American and European scientists led by Oregon State University (OSU) – warns that some of these factors are not even taken into account by climate models.

in view of this findingstudy, the conclusions of which were published this Friday in the journal ‘One Earth’stresses the urgency of responding to the climate crisis and acting “both in research and in policy” to reduce emissions “immediately and massively” and limit future warming.

In climatology, loops of climate feedbacks these are processes that can amplify or diminish the effects of greenhouse gas emissions, triggering a chain reaction that repeats itself over and over again.

An example of a loop would be Arctic warming, which causes sea ice to melt, which in turn increases the warming because sea ​​waterInstead of reflecting radiation, it absorbs it.

Some of these loopholes – the authors point out – are particularly worrisome, such as permafrostin which the increase in temperature it causes permafrost to melt, which translates into more carbon dioxide and methane emissions, with a consequent increase in warming.

Other potentially dangerous feedbacks are drying out or combustion peatlands and forest retreat.

And since these loops may not yet be fully built into the climate modelscurrent plans to cut emissions may not adequately limit future warming, study warns.

CURRENT AND MASSIVE REDUCTION OF EMISSIONS

The study calls for “immediate and massive reductions in emissions” to minimize short-term warming and reduce climate disasters that are already occurring such as wildfires, coastal flooding, to dissolve permafrost and other extreme phenomena.

In addition, it calls for mitigation of potential threats from milestones climatic conditions, each time closer due to numerous loops from feedback amplifiers (the tipping point is the threshold above which the change in the climate system component becomes independent).

According to the researchers, even relatively moderate warming would increase probability that the country has crossed several points inflectioncausing major changes in the climate system planet and potentially strengthening reinforcing feedback.

“It is too late to completely avoid the pain of climate change, but if we take significant measures soon and set priorities basic human needs and social justice, it may still be possible to limit the damage,” explains William Ripple, the OSU researcher who led the study.

The study also laments that, despite decades of scientific warnings, emissions have increased significantly in the past century.

Scientists believe that interactions between feedback loops could cause a permanent change in the current state of the climate Land to another that threatened the survival of many human beings and other forms of life.

“In the worst case scenario, if the amplifying feedbacks are strong enough, the result is likely to be catastrophic climate change that humans cannot control,” says Ripple.

In addition to the 27 amplification loops identified in the study, the team found seven “buffers” (that work to stabilize the climate system) such as carbon dioxide fertilization, in which increases atmospheric concentrations of CO2 causes an increase in carbon uptake by vegetation.

The study also identifies seven other reactions whose effects are unknown, such as increased atmospheric dust and reduced ocean stability.