With worldwide earnings of $2.922 billion, “Avatar: Pandora’s Adventure” is the highest-grossing film of all time. No film has made as much money worldwide as James Cameron’s 2009 blockbuster. 13 years later, the sequel has begun and many are wondering: will it break the record? Will Avatar 2: The Way Of Water become the new highest-grossing film of all time? One thing first: we can’t answer this question here just yet. Because it is still much, much too early for that. But we can classify the first numbers and the forecasts.
While most of the world will follow this Thursday and tomorrow Friday, “Avatar 2: The Way Of Water” has already kicked off in some countries – including Germany. The expert page reports the first figures:
And they may read soberingly at first glance to one or the other: a slightly better start than “Doctor Strange In The Multiverse Of Madness” and behind the recent 007 spectacle “James Bond: No Time To Die”? But this is exactly where the classification of the numbers comes into play!
In addition to that of Besides the aforementioned erratic weather in the south, which may have deterred casual visitors with Blitzeis, there is one peculiarity that makes it particularly difficult to classify the songs from “Avatar 2”: the length of the film!
The running time of “Avatar 2” is important for song classification
“Avatar 2: The Way Of Water” is well over three hours long – and that cuts the numbers down considerably, especially in the beginning. Due to the long running time, cinemas can schedule fewer screenings per room. A performance at 8 p.m. and another at 10:30 p.m. or 11 p.m. in the same room is not possible.
But it also has an impact on the audience – especially now at the beginning of the week. Many people would rather save a 3+ hour movie for the weekend than watch it after a long day at work.
» “Avatar” on Disney+*
There are also other factors that make calculating the total result of “Avatar 2” difficult. Are people waiting for Disney Plus to start streaming? However, that could be far in the future – and this film in particular calls for the big screen. In addition, one should also take into account that movie tickets are expensive, especially for “Avatar 2” with surcharges for extra length and 3D. Especially in the current situation, some people cannot or do not want to afford to go to the cinema.
The US forecast gives more information
As to whether “Avatar 2” can become the most successful film of all time, the US box office hits are a better indication than the figures for the start in Germany. And our sister site is currently quite optimistic that the film will in any case be a great success. It is accepted there Avatar 2: The Way Of Water lands between $145 million and $179 million this weekend. Overall, the sequel is expected to gross between $574 million and $803 million – a wide range, which is very difficult to judge in this mega-blockbuster area.
However, the offer offers one answer: despite higher ticket prices, it’s quite unlikely that “Avatar 2” will surpass its predecessor in North America alone. The first volume grossed nearly $750 million when it was originally released in 2009. Including but you have to think what a phenomenon “Avatar” was, how many months it ran in the cinemas.
Achieving this will be much, much harder for the sequel in a changed landscape of streaming competition. Of course, how successful “Avatar 2” becomes will ultimately depend on how enthusiastic the audience is and how much they recommend the movie, so that it can still be a big hit in cinemas in January 2023 and maybe even February.
Special Factors: Men’s World Cup & China
James Cameron has already indicated that “Avatar 2” must become one of the highest grossing films of all time to become profitable. It seems realistic that $2 billion will eventually be raised. In order to surpass the result of “Avatar” and become the most successful film of all time, a lot would have to come together – and at the moment small things are still working against the film:
In France, the number of cinema tickets sold yesterday was “only” decent, but the national men’s football team also played an important semi-final in Qatar. The finale also follows at the weekend, which deters people worldwide from going to the cinema. Because even though the World Cup for men in Qatar in Germany scores lower than previous tournaments, that is not the case in the rest of the world. This could affect global launch numbers, but shouldn’t have much of an impact in the long run. The people who miss “Avatar 2” in the opening weekend because of this, just have to go to the cinema later.
Yet Another factor could have a huge impact on global box office revenue: China’s special issue. Even though corona restrictions have been eased there, the world’s second most important cinema market in terms of box office results has been hit hard. About 30% of the cinemas there are still closed and almost half of the scheduled screenings of “Avatar 2” could not go ahead on the day it started. There’s no telling yet if Avatar 2 will be the huge hit one might expect in China. A previously predicted start of more than 200 million dollars (and therefore even higher than in the US) has already been said goodbye. In the meantime, one can be happy if the film grossed 100 million dollars at the start.
As you can see, “Avatar 2: The Way Of Water” is unlikely to replace its predecessor “Avatar” as the most successful movie of all time, but it is possible. According to the first figures from Germany, among others, it cannot be ruled out. But a lot would have to come together for it to work in the end.
By the way, there’s even more about “Avatar 2: The Way Of Water” in the current edition of our podcast, where our moderators Sebastian Gerdshikow and Pascal Reis talk about the blockbuster with guest David Hain: