Euribor maintains growth at 3.38% and remains below ECB rates for the first time in a year

Breathe, albeit very lightly, for mortgages, which this Friday expects a very strong jump in Euribor after the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) raise interest rates by 50 basis points.

It is true that the indicator acts by anticipating the movement of interest rates, so it would have to reflect the decision of the agency in the previous days. However, the meeting on Thursday passed with many doubts about the ECB’s move. And a good part of the market even predicted that because of the banking crisis, it will be necessary to stop raising interest rates.

For this reason, after the firmness shown by Lagarde in the fight against inflationa strong jump in Euribor was expected for this Friday. Nothing is further from the truth. The benchmark most mortgages refer to in Spain capped its rise at 21 thousand, leaving its daily rate at 3.38%, below the ECB’s interest rates, which are already set at 3.5%. The March average thus remains at 3.754% after one of the most tumultuous weeks in memory. On Tuesday, it fell by 359 thousand to 3.509% due to fears that the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) could trigger a financial crisis. But just 24 hours later it posted its biggest bounce in nine months, eating up half of Tuesday’s collapse with a gain of 159k to 3.662%. This Thursday it fell again by 303 thousandths, touching the lowest levels for the year, and today it rose again to 3.38%, but still below the level to which the ECB interest rates rose.

That is, if the month ended like this, it would mean that for variable mortgage of 180,000 euros for 25 years, with the Euribor difference plus 1%, the owner would drop from paying a fee of 659 euros to around 1020 euros. That is, slightly more than 360 euros per month. It is also likely that the March average will end at even higher levels, as the ECB has predicted that there is still room for further interest rate hikes.