Euribor falls in the heat of the American banking crisis

Bankruptcies of Silvergate, Signature and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the banking scare they started in the United States did not take long to spread to the other side of the Atlantic. European stock markets are trying to recover from Monday’s slide, when the continent’s major banks suffered significant losses, and the market is starting to speculate on how the authorities will react in the coming days.

He European Central Bank (ECB) scheduled a meeting for this Thursday, March 16. Its president, Christine Lagarde, already announced her intention to approve the new increase at the last meeting Interest rates semicircular. However, the bankruptcy of SVB opens a new scenario, highlighting the unforeseen and unwanted consequences that can be caused by a strong and rapid increase in the price of money.

Although in principle the US banking crisis does not represent a systemic risk for the eurozone – bank supervision is stricter than 15 years ago, they are better equipped and there are no signs that SVB has made management mistakes – it is true that some analysts believe that this event could end the rise of the ECB. This Thursday, the body may be tempted to take its foot off the gas pedal for a moment, before stepping back on it, as the Federal Reserve considers, which will announce its decision at its March 22 meeting: “Just as we are skeptical that bankruptcy The SVB is a systemic event, so we are too if it leads to a radically different approach to monetary policy,” Oxford Economics points out.

The signs at the market point in that direction. He gave the strongest this Tuesday euribor, which fell by three tenths, to 3.5% per day. The move is unprecedented in recent years and could foreshadow a less restrictive monetary policy from Frankfurt, given fears that the economy will not keep up with rising interest rates.

So far in March, the index – to which the majority mortgages in Spain – it is 3.84%. As they point out on euribor.com, for a household with a 25-year loan of 180,000 euros and a difference of 1% plus euribor, the monthly fee to the bank will increase by 376 euros per month when the annual review is required. It will go from 659 euros to 1,035 euros.