Economic growth in 2024, in the hands of the next president

Economic growth projections for Panama for 2024, they are not very good, but there are those who believe that the situation is not even tragic, because it will largely depend on the measures that will be applied by the Government that comes on July 1.

Meanwhile he The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a decrease in the growth of Panama’s gross domestic product to 2.5% in 2024, as a result of recent mine closures by the local unit of Canada’s First Quantum Minerals, national economists have their own projections.

In that sense former president of the College of Economists, Olmedo Estrada, He thinks the Central American nation could fall short of what the IMF is forecasting, as he sees growth between 1.5 and 2 percent.

Contrary to what was stated by Estrada, economist Reyes Arturo Valverde He is more optimistic and believes that Panama’s growth would be between 3 and 4 percent.

Before the verdict on unconstitutionality was reached, businessmen and organizations international projects predict that the economic growth of Panama will It would be above 5%, which is a projection that has varied.

“There is still no short-term activity to compensate for the absence of mines, So we will probably have to wait until this year to promote some industries or economic activities that can partially cover the absence of mines. By 2025, maybe we can say that we will recover that gap that the mine leaves in the economic activity of Panama,” says Estrada.

The economist points out that this would be one of the lowest percentages of growth in the last few years, not counting the year of the pandemic, which was negative.’

2.5%

This is the growth the IMF is predicting for Panama, although the approaches differ.

5%

This is the initial growth projection for Panama in 2024.

Let us remind you that in 2001 it was the lowest you remember when it almost went negativebut from that year onwards growth of 3.4 and 5% is maintained until reaching 12%, which was the year with the highest growth.

For his part, Reyes Arturo Valverde explains that “in the model I amdevelopment growth is between 3 and 4%, because one of the elements that the IMF includes is that the mine that produced about 7% of exports and which then gave 0.6% of taxes does not have its own industry in Panama, because there are no industries that provide it with equipment, materials and supplies and so on, everything had to be imported, so there is no effect to imply that the Panamanian economy is affected by that situation.”

He points out that “our dynamism, our economic process at one point in time would avoid that effect due to the fact that, since it cannot be reflected in the industry, we could avoid that fact.

The economist indicates that it is The Panamanian economy relies on consumption demand as an economic variable, “So, the sectors that normally bear this are the processing industry, tourism, the Canal with all its climate changes is important, the question of an international banking center and it is logical that we always hope that the port logistics system and others push despite the situation in China.

The challenge, according to Valverde, is how far the issue of the drought affecting the Panama Canal, “Assuming that the situation improves in May, we will undoubtedly have a faster recovery of the Canal than predicted, but everything will depend on the situation, how we will overcome it, because logically there is a problem in the Red Sea and “The two most important routes of global transport are affected, so , the ships will at a given moment, if it is not fixed or solved, decide for it, let’s hope that the Canal is the one that can have that solvency.”

The specialist reminds that “electoral processes are always a situation of imbalance and reengineering by the new government, which implies that in the last elections Panama gave favorable conditions of democratic solvency, She didn’t have that situation that shakes her very much, her rulers are not chosen by pressure.