A negative impact of $400 million if the drought continues to affect the Channel

Economic impact if they continue to appear limits for the channel could average $400 million or more, according to the studies he conducted Panama Canal Authority (ACP) together with United States Army Corps of Engineers.

John D. Langman, Vice President Water projects of the Panama Canal, he explained that the study was conducted with the profit indicator of 2021 and would consequently affect the contributions AKP makes to the state.

“In the water analyses, we found that the increase in traffic restrictions translates into an amount of money that will no longer be used as a profit,” he explained.

By the month of October, according to the figures preliminary data published by the Institute for Statistics and Population Census (Inec), Although there was a decrease in the number of ships crossing the canal, revenue increased by $371.5 million compared to 2022.

On the other hand, since it is The canal came under Panamanian administration, The contributions were always increasing. The last one was worth 2.544 million dollars.

However, if alternatives are not sought to prevent situations from recurring more often, such as restricting traffic, the economic blow would not only hit the ACP, but in the whole country.

The study was conducted to get an idea of ​​the impact by 2075, however, Langman cautions that this was done based on 2021 rates and as they increase, the magnitude could be greater.’

In 2020, Canal’s contribution was $1,824 million, rising to $2,080 million in 2021 and $2,494 million in 2022.

Last year, the contribution of the interoceanic highway was 2.544 million, despite traffic restrictions.

From January to October 2023, 403 fewer ships passed than in the same period of the previous year.

According to the agencies that study the climate, a neutral state should prevail in April with the probability that the rains will normalize, and even the appearance of the La Niña phenomenon, which is characterized by an increased amount of precipitation in Panama.

Furthermore, he stated that the most alarming thing is that these studies are unpredictable.

“Like the conditions of the year dry ones are not in a straight line but changeableyou can have very bad years like 2023 and the impact is much greater than what would correspond to that straight line,” the ACP engineer illustrated.

He added that this is for a Government is fatal, because you cannot have peace of mind or confidence that your income is relatively stable.

“We can have a year with $800 million less profit and another year that’s like 2021, but if we have that year with $800 million less, economic consequence it’s very negative for the country,” Langman explained.

Customers

Another piece of data that cannot be measured and could contribute more to this negative impact is behavior clients of the Panama Canal.

“They can say that they have less and less the certainty of passing through the Channel and can whether they look for other solutions and reject the route,” he assessed.

Delivery and logistics companies have recognized this Channel restrictions have begun hit their revenues, although not at a level to rule out the use of the interoceanic waterway, for now.

Langman concluded that it was important to obtain water sources to ensure a appropriate and reliable customer service and these consider the Canal route as ideal for continuing to carry your goods.