World crude oil consumption exceeds OPEC forecasts

OPEC stated this in a reportworld oil consumption is “better than expected” this quarter, with an estimated average of 103.3 million barrels per day (mbd), about 150,000 bd higher than the level forecast a month ago.

Based on this forecast, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revised its full-year forecast up slightly by 20,000 bd (0.02 mbd), which now averages 102.11 mbd, up 2.45% from 2022.

“Global Demand for oil c“continues to show strength and resilience, with better-than-expected growth in the fourth quarter of 2023,” OPEC said in its monthly report on the global “black gold” market.

The biggest contributors to this growth are by far China and India, with annual increases of 7.6% (up to 16 mbd) and 4.5% (5.4 mbd), respectively.

Latin America also posted a solid 3.7% year-on-year increase this year, its oil demand remaining modest, at 6.7 mbd, compared to other regions, the report said.

The price of a barrel up to 87.11 dollars
The price of the benchmark OPEC barrel fell to $87.11 from more than $97 at the end of September.

The evolution of other types of crude oil was similar, such as Brent (reference for Europe) and WTI (United States), which were around 81 and 77 dollars/barrel today, respectively.

“Recent data confirms important strong global growth trends and healthy oil market fundamentals,” the report said.

He points out that “despite excessive negative market sentiment regarding the performance of China’s oil demand and the global market in general, the latest data shows that Chinese crude oil imports rose by 11.4 mbd in October and we are still on track to break a new annual record.”

Crude oil imports from India are also expected to return to an all-time high this quarter, they added.
In addition, he points out his expectation of an increase in “international air traffic activity” which increases the demand for kerosene.