World agricultural production will grow, but at a slow pace

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimate that global agricultural and food production will continue to grow over the next 10 years, albeit at a slower rate than in the previous decade as a result of demographic trends.

Report OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032 is the main global benchmark for medium-term expectations for agricultural product markets.

Although uncertainty has increased as a result of geopolitical tensions, adverse weather conditions, animal and plant diseases, and increased volatility in the prices of major agricultural inputs, global agricultural production, livestock and fisheries are estimated to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1% during the reporting period.

Total food consumption is expected to grow by 1.3% per year until 2032, implying an increase in the share of agricultural products used as food.

These forecasts assume a rapid recovery from recent inflationary pressures, normal weather conditions, the absence of major policy changes, and trend-aligned developments in consumer preferences.

The possibility of sustained inflationary pressures poses negative risks for global demand and food production.

In a special evaluation of the prices of the main agricultural inputs, which in the last two years have seen a significant increasethe report calculates that every 10% increase in the price of fertilizer generates a 2% increase in the price of food.

This burden falls more on poor people, who spend a larger part of their budget on food. Against a general background of uncertainty, the report highlights the importance of policies to ensure greater efficiency and resilience.

“The general trends described in this report point in the right direction, but they need to be accelerated,” said QU Dongyu, Director-General of FAO. “Promoting a faster transition to sustainable agri-food systems will bring many benefits and help create a better life for all, leaving no one behind.”

The report offers decadal forecasts for cereals, vegetable oils, dairy products, meat, sugar, fish, cotton, tropical fruits, legumes and agricultural production for biofuels.